The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have an impact of more than €140 million on Serbian industry and steel exports in 2026, according to a Serbian Finance Ministry baseline estimate reported by GMK Center. The projected impact highlights the carbon compliance costs facing Serbian companies exporting to the EU.

For steel exporters and other high-emissions industries, higher compliance costs could affect the price competitiveness of goods sold into the EU. The extent of the effect on individual businesses will depend on their carbon-related costs and their ability to absorb or pass on those costs.

The estimate covers industry and steel exports as a whole; it does not establish how the projected impact will be distributed among companies or products. Exporters may therefore need to assess their own exposure when considering production and supply chain decisions.

Over a longer period, the impact on trade competitiveness will depend in part on how quickly businesses can reduce emissions and how those changes affect their costs. Further official information and company disclosures may help clarify how the projected impact develops.